Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast | NOAA (2024)

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Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast | NOAA (2)

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Monday, July 01, 2024 14:17:47

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  • Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast

NOAA Scales mini

Space Weather Conditions

on NOAA Scales

24-Hour Observed Maximums

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Current Space Weather Conditions

on NOAA Scales

R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout Impacts

HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.

More about the NOAA Space Weather Scales

Northern Hemisphere

Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast | NOAA (6)

Southern Hemisphere

Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast | NOAA (7)

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This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.

The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth’s magnetic pole. The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. The aurora is not visible during daylight hours. The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a 1000 km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right.

The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies. The aurora directly impacts HF radio communication and GPS/GNSS satellite navigation. It is closely related to the ground induce currents that impact electric power transition.

For many people, the aurora is a beautiful nighttime phenomenon that is worth traveling to arctic regions just to observe. It is the only way for most people to actually experience space weather.

These links provide a discussion of the aurora phenomena and tips for the best opportunities to view aurora at various locations around the world.

Space Weather and GPS Systems

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The OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and OnlineNowcasting) model is an empirical model of the intensity of the aurora developed at the Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory by Patrick Newell and co-workers1. The model uses the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field measured at the L1 orbit position at 1.6 million km (1 million miles) upstream from earth as input and calculates three types of electron precipitation and the proton precipitation which strongly correlate with the aurora. An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the Ultraviolet imager (UVI) instrument on the NASA Polar satellite(2).

On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable. In those instances, an alternative estimate of the solar wind forcing, based on the current Kp geomagnetic index is used to drive the OVATION model. When this occurs, there is no forecast lead time.

For more information on the OVATION model and aurora products, see:

  1. Newell, P. T., T.Sotirelis, and S. Wing (2009), Diffuse,monoenergetic, and broadband aurora: The global precipitation budget, J.Geophys. Res., 114, A09207,doi:10.1029/2009JA014326(link is external).
  2. Machol, J. L., Green., J. C.,Redmon, R. J.,Viereck, R. A., Newell, P. T., (2012), Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visibleaurorae, Space Weather, 10, 3,doi.org/10.1029/2011SW000746

In 2009, Newell et. al., developed the OVATION model.

In 2011, NOAA (NCEIandSWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora.MacholandRedmon(NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. Viereck(SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run inrealtimeto create aurora forecasts.

In 2013, Newell upgraded the OVATION Prime model so that it would more accurately capture large geomagnetic storms. The original model, based solely onDMSPdata, was only reliable to Kp of 7. By adding data from the NASA TIMEDGUVIinstrument, Newell et al., were able to expand the model to include the larger storm values of Kp of 8 and 9.

In 2016, NOAASWPCshared the operational OVATION code (written inIDL) with the UK Met Office in the UK. The UK Met Office converted the OVATION model fromIDLto Python.

In 2020, NOAASWPCimplemented the new version of the OVATION Prime model into operations. This version has been dubbed OVATION 2020.

The Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model developed by P. Newell at the Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Laboratory.

The latest 24 hours of image frames comprising the Northern and Southern hemisphere loops (with time-tagged file names) are available:Northern,Southern

The most recentNorthern and Southern Hemisphere images (with static file names) are available:Northern,Southern

Auroral data in agridedformat for the entire Earth is available in compressed JSON format: Thelatest JSON fileis available as well.

The Hemispheric Power Index, an estimate of the total auroral energy input at each pole, is available in ASCII format:latest HPI

Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast | NOAA (2024)

FAQs

How to read the 30 minute aurora forecast? ›

The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth's magnetic pole. The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense.

What is the most accurate aurora forecast? ›

Glendale app is the world's most accurate aurora app. It needs to use your location to determine which country & timezone you are in, to provide accurate local times and aurora forecasts. Your device will ask for permission to use your location and you must select 'allow always' when asked.

How reliable is aurora forecast? ›

The aurora forecast can be quite accurate. Technology allows us to monitor the weather forecast and check solar and geomagnetic activity. But at the end of the day, the aurora forecast is only a prediction. We can never fully know when the northern lights will appear.

What time is best to see aurora borealis tonight? ›

November through to February offer the darkest skies and longer evenings for maximum sky-gazing. The strongest lights tend to appear between 9pm and 2am, though the best sightings often occur between 11pm and midnight.

What do the numbers mean on the aurora forecast? ›

The northern lights forecast typically provides information on the expected aurora activity level, often on a scale of 0 to 9 or similar, making it easy to decipher. Higher values indicate stronger geomagnetic storms and a greater likelihood of visible northern lights at lower latitudes.

What is the highest Kp index ever recorded? ›

Top 50 geomagnetic storms
Kp max
11989/03/149
21989/03/139
31959/07/159
41957/09/139-
46 more rows

How far in advance can northern lights be predicted? ›

As a naturally occurring phenomenon, the appearance of the Northern Lights is notoriously difficult to predict any further in advance than about two hours before it happens.

What time is the aurora borealis most common? ›

The winter season in the Arctic lasts from late September to late March/ early April. During this time, the Arctic sky is dark enough for the Northern Lights to be visible in the right conditions. The aurora is at its most active around the equinoxes in March and September.

Where is the highest chance to see aurora? ›

Norway. Witness the captivating Northern Lights dance across the night sky in Norway! Escape city lights and venture into the majestic fjords, mountains, and islands where darkness reigns. Norway boasts some of the darkest skies in Europe, maximizing your chance of seeing the Aurora Borealis in its full glory.

What is the best free app for the Northern Lights? ›

My Aurora Forecast is the best app for seeing the Northern Lights. Built with a sleek dark design, it appeals to both tourists and serious aurora watchers by telling you what you want to know. With this app, you'll be seeing the Northern Lights in no time.

How often does the aurora forecast change? ›

Sunspot activity, and hence auroral activity, tends to peak every 11 years. Sunspots produce solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which create the geomagnetic storms here on Earth that cause the aurora to appear.

What is the best website for aurora forecast in Iceland? ›

NOAA's OVATION Map

It shows a 30-minute aurora forecast for the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The map is updated daily around midnight (UTC). It's a good sign if you see thick areas of light yellow, orange or red on the OVATION Map.

What time is best to see northern lights tonight? ›

When Is The Best Time To View The Northern Lights? The best chance to catch the lights is typically within two hours of midnight, when geomagnetic activity is in full effect, according to NOAA, though multiple factors can disrupt its visibility.

Which direction to look for the northern lights? ›

Find a place where you can see to the north ( or south if you are in the southern hemisphere). Given the right vantage point, say for example on top of a hill in the northern hemisphere with an unobstructed view toward the north, a person can see aurora even when it is 1000 km (600 miles) further north.

How to see aurora through phone? ›

If your smartphone has a “Night Mode” feature, that should be good enough to get a more than impressive souvenir shot of the aurora. It likely means a long exposure of between five and 10 seconds, which will look much better if you do three things: Use your primary lens, NOT the super-wide lens (which is inferior).

How to read aurora forecasts? ›

The Kp index ranges from 0 to 9.
  1. For Kp in the range 0 to 2, the aurora will be far north, quite dim in intensity, and not very active.
  2. For Kp in the range of 3 to 5, the aurora will move further from the poles, it will become brighter and there will be more auroral activity (motion and formations).

What is a good BZ for aurora? ›

When the north-south direction of IMF flips south, the magnetic field lines connect to the earth's magnetosphere which faces north. A rift opens that allows the solar wind to pour into our magnetosphere. Bz becomes negative, for example –10nT, which is a good sign that auroras will start to appear.

What does a moderate aurora forecast mean? ›

Kp 2-3: Moderate solar activity. You'll have a good chance of seeing the Northern Lights. This is the most common forecast in Iceland, so head out if you can. Kp 4-6: This indicates that a solar storm is on the way. You can expect to see a great display of the Northern Lights and maybe even a corona!

What does disturbance level mean on the aurora app? ›

The KP index is one of the most known data for aurora. Related to the disturbance in the Earth's Magnetic field, it expresses the scale of activity on a level from 0 to 9. The higher it gets, the more chance you will see the Northern Lights far from the center of the Pole.

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